by 
THE Emir of Kano is leading the pack of modern Northern thinkers and leaders who can now see the handwriting on the wall. But, even at that he is hesitant to go the full distance to tell his fellow Northerners the truth. He talks as if the destruction of the North is something still to occur. That is totally false.
At least from the standpoint of economic development, the North has already destroyed itself. It only remains for it to destroy the South as well. That is a distinct possibility within the next three years as Buhari takes the nation deeper into the debt trap.
Gradual end to the Age of Oil
Even if Buhari and his
Economic Management Team, EMT, from 2015 to 2019 had been the most competent
set of managers, the nation would still have gone into a mild recession in
2016. The exceptional Gross Domestic Product, GDP, growth experienced from 2011
to 2013 had nothing to do with Jonathan’s good management of the economy. Even
Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s leadership of the EMT at the time did very little to
prepare the country for the gradual end to the Age of Oil. Strictly speaking,
judged on the basis of what could have been done differently but was left
undone, Jonathan/Okonjo-Iweala were compound failures. The former World Bank
Managing Director was long on talk but short on action. While she advocated
diversification of the economy at every forum, she did next to nothing to bring
it about. Close to 80 per cent of the investments which propelled the GDP
growth to 6-7 per cent were in the oil sector. The downward trend of the price
of crude oil which started in the middle of 2013 and has continued till today
was a warning the PDP administration ignored. They failed to prepare Nigeria
for what was already being predicted by several observers – including me. So,
to some extent, the economic predicament in which Nigeria finds itself has its
origins in the mistakes of 2010-2014. That said, the fact still remains that
any group seeking political power must conduct a study of the current economic
situation as well as the trend in the short, medium and long term. An incoming
administration must have an idea of what it will inherit and have the
appropriate plans to deal with them. This is what Buhari administration failed
to do. Incidentally, had Buhari won in 2011, he would have had such a
perspective study ready before his inauguration. I was involved in that and
there are several former members of CPC as my witness. The country’s fate was
hanging in the balance on May 29, 2015. Economic recovery would have been
extremely difficult given the heavy dependence on oil even if the security
situation has improved. The global investment community, like Nigerians, had
hopes that with a Northerner and Muslim as president Boko Haram would gradually
allow peace to be restored. Then possibilities for agro-allied projects can be
explored with the entire North as the epicentre of the activities. Perhaps,
Buhari also thought that his presence in Aso Rock was sufficient to procure
peace without putting up a fight. He was wrong on Boko Haram. He was slow to
act decisively. The real destruction, however, was not caused by Boko Haram –
which was locked mostly in the North East. A lot of projects can be established
outside the zone which could accelerate economic growth to over four per cent
or more. It was the “terrorist without boundaries”, called herdsmen, who
heightened national insecurity and created a situation in which no part of
Nigeria is safe.
Under the circumstances, local and foreign investors simply
stopped searching for possible areas of investment in Nigeria. All interests in
Nigeria were shelved indefinitely. That was not all, bandits and kidnappers,
now mostly in the North added to the feeling of insecurity. When the President
announced that 90 per cent of victims of violence and insecurity in the North
were Muslims, he was mostly right and it was somewhat disturbing to read that
the Christian Association of Nigeria, CAN, was disputing it. My friends, still
lucky to be alive in Kaduna, Katsina and Zamfara have confirmed that there is
probably no Christian left in most of the communities now under siege in those
three states. Obviously, when any of the settlement is razed only Muslims are
slaughtered. But, that fact carries with it the seeds of the North’s
self-destruction. In virtually all those rural communities Christians
constitute the vast majority of teachers. In effect, even the kids who are
supposed to be in school might as well stay home since there are no teachers.
Basic education
It is difficult to imagine a better way to destroy a region or country than to deprive its youngest citizens of basic education. So, even if all the bandits, kidnappers, herdsmen and Boko Haram stop their atrocities, the North has already destroyed itself. Whatever pervasive violence has failed to demolish, population explosion is wiping off. Sanusi recently made the following observation which is more explosive than he realises. “The poverty level of the North is 80 per cent; while in the South, the percentage is 20 per cent, simply because of the culture of marrying many wives and producing many children who, at the end, are left on the streets to beg for what to eat.” – The Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II. Punch, January 27, 2020.
Unknown to the Emir, it
is not only the illiterates and the poor in the North who over-populate the
country. An elected member of the Federal House of Representatives, and a
Majority Leader, for that matter put up an exhibition in the House recently. He
brought his four wives and boasted of having 19 children and still expecting
more. His father had over 20 wives and scores of children. He is definitely not
alone; he was only the most ridiculous. It never occurred to him that most of
his siblings are living in poverty. Furthermore, even as an elected member of
the House, the per capita income of his own household is already very low. When
he dies, he will most probably leave behind a lot of people barely able to eat
two meals a day. Now, with leaders like these, setting bad examples, what else
is needed to destroy the region? It is a fact that there is no nation on earth
which had conquered poverty without population control. Most Northern leaders
don’t want to promote it because it is politically risky. Yet, without the
courage the North is already destroyed – almost beyond redemption.
Source: VANGUARD
