Outdated Soviet Satellite Re-Entering Earth’s Atmosphere Soon

A fragment from a Soviet-era spacecraft is expected to make an uncontrolled descent back to Earth this Saturday, following more than 50 years in orbit. The object, part of the failed Kosmos 482 Venus mission launched in 1972, has been circling the planet since it failed to escape Earth’s gravity and fractured into multiple pieces.

According to NASA, the component most likely to re-enter the atmosphere is the spacecraft’s lander—a dense, spherical module roughly one meter in diameter and weighing close to 500 kilograms. Due to its robust construction, which includes a heavy-duty heat shield designed to withstand Venus’s extreme conditions, experts believe it could partially survive atmospheric re-entry.

The European Space Agency (ESA) estimates the re-entry could occur around 09:16 BST on 10 May, though the precise timing may vary by several hours. While the exact landing location remains uncertain, the odds of it causing harm are extremely low. With approximately 70% of the planet covered by oceans, any surviving debris is most likely to fall into water.

ESA space debris specialist Stijn Lemmens emphasized the low risk to human life, stating, “You’re far more likely to win the lottery than to be hit by this kind of space debris.” The spacecraft’s parachute system, once meant to slow its descent toward Venus, is believed to have deteriorated during its decades-long stay in space, reducing its functionality.

The possible impact zone spans between 51.7 degrees north and south latitude, meaning the lander could come down anywhere from London to the southern edge of South America. Though the re-entry path covers a wide area, similar incidents have happened before without incident. Larger objects typically fall back to Earth weekly, while smaller pieces burn up in the atmosphere on a daily basis.

Previous examples include China’s Long March 5B rocket stage, which re-entered over the Indian Ocean in 2022, and the Tiangong-1 space lab, which mostly disintegrated over the Pacific Ocean in 2018.

Kosmos 482 is now under close observation by international space agencies. Experts continue to stress the importance of designing future spacecraft with safe de-orbiting procedures, allowing for controlled re-entries that minimize risk and environmental impact.